The Misbehavior of Markets Book Summary

Gavrilo Princip woke up with a short to-do list on June 28, 1914: assassinate the archduke. Franz Ferdinand was parading through Sarajevo in a convertible and Princip and his friends were ready. Ferdinand’s route was known in advance and one of the group’s members threw a bomb in front of the archduke’s car. The bomb…

Small Portfolio Changes Don’t Matter

The investment product landscape is like the supplement industry. Supplement companies don’t make money if you sleep eight hours a night, only drink water, and avoid junk food. Fund providers don’t make money if you stick to low-cost index funds. We’re inundated with products promising an edge, either for our health or finances. In investing,…

Book Summary of Superforecasting

Jazon Zweig said Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner is “the most important book on decision making since Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow”. Tetlock co-created The Good Judgement Project (GJP) which participated in a forecasting tournament held by IARPA, a U.S. government organization. IARPA supports research that has the potential to revolutionize intelligence analysis.…