Measuring the Tax Drag of Trend Following

The goal of this post is to put concrete numbers on the tax impact of trend following strategies in taxable accounts. I tested 12-month and 6-month trend strategies from 1998 to 2019 on three stock index funds: U.S. stocks with Vanguard’s VTSMX (ETF equivalent is VTI) International stocks with Vanguard’s VGTSX (ETF equivalent is VXUS)…

The Misbehavior of Markets Book Summary

Gavrilo Princip woke up with a short to-do list on June 28, 1914: assassinate the archduke. Franz Ferdinand was parading through Sarajevo in a convertible and Princip and his friends were ready. Ferdinand’s route was known in advance and one of the group’s members threw a bomb in front of the archduke’s car. The bomb…

Small Portfolio Changes Don’t Matter

The investment product landscape is like the supplement industry. Supplement companies don’t make money if you sleep eight hours a night, only drink water, and avoid junk food. Fund providers don’t make money if you stick to low-cost index funds. We’re inundated with products promising an edge, either for our health or finances. In investing,…